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☆ Fed trajectory is 'bumpy' as macroeconomy has a lot of momentum, says Dreyfus and Mellon's Reinhart
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed trajectory is 'bumpy' as macroeconomy has a lot of momentum, says Dreyfus and Mellon's ReinhartVincent Reinhart, Dreyfus and Mellon chief economist and former Fed economist, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the current macroeconomic picture relative to the Fed's trajectory, how hawkish Jerome Powell will sound, and much more.

Persons: Dreyfus, Mellon's Reinhart Vincent Reinhart, hawkish Jerome Powell Organizations: Mellon, Fed

☆ Oil price surge is the No. 1 threat to the US economy, Moody’s economist warns
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

But there is a growing threat to that sunny economic backdrop: surging oil prices. Global oil prices are flirting with $92 a barrel amid worries about a wider war in the Middle East. US oil prices surged above $87 a barrel late last week for the first time since late October, leaving them up about 21% this year. First, drone attacks on oil refineries deep inside Russia helped lift oil prices last month. Beyond the Middle East tensions, oil and gas prices have been boosted by OPEC and its allies, which continue to restrain supply.

Persons: “, ”, Mark Zandi, Moody’s, Donald Trump, Trump, ” Zandi, hasn’t, Andy Lipow, Brent, ” Helima Croft, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Vincent Reinhart, Mellon, ” Reinhart, he’s, Patrick De Haan, ” De Haan Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Wall, CNN, “, Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Lipow Oil Associates, CIA, RBC Capital Markets, RSM, AAA, OPEC, Lipow Locations: New York, Iran, Russia, Syria, Israel, Quds, “

☆ Former Fed economist on the election's impact on rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Fed economist on the election's impact on rate cutsVincent Reinhart, Dreyfus and Mellon chief economist and former Fed economist, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss why investors shouldn't expect the Fed to start easing rates, whether the Federal Reserve would ease in June to avoid easing around the election, and more.

Persons: Vincent Reinhart, Dreyfus Organizations: Former, Mellon, Fed, Federal

☆ The Fed will put off policy action until at least June: Dreyfus and Mellon's Vincent Reinhart
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed will put off policy action until at least June: Dreyfus and Mellon's Vincent ReinhartVincent Reinhart, Dreyfus and Mellon chief economist and former Fed economist, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss what to expect from the Federal Reserve in March, the risks to inflation, and clues to see an incrementally weaker job market.

Persons: Dreyfus, Mellon's Vincent Reinhart Vincent Reinhart Organizations: Mellon, Fed, Federal Reserve

Since June, the quarterly "dot plot" of policymakers' projections of the appropriate path of policy has shown rates rising another quarter point this year. Investors will be eager for the boost a rate cut would give to markets, and consumers will be relieved by lower mortgage and credit rates. Indeed, in remarks last week Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that over the last six months inflation had averaged around 2.5%. Investors, meanwhile, have become increasingly fixed on March as a starting point for rate cuts. Between falling inflation and a modest slowdown in growth, Powell said: "We are getting what we wanted to get."

Persons: Vincent Reinhart, Dreyfus, Reinhart, Donald Trump, Michael Gapen, Gapen, Jerome Powell, Powell, Christopher Waller, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal Reserve, Mellon, WE, Republican, Bank of America, Fed, Spelman College, Thomson Locations: U.S, Atlanta

That was the lowest year-over-year inflation rate in more than 2 1/2 years. Core prices rose 3.5% in October from a year earlier, below the 3.7% year-over-year increase in September. Those price increases, though smaller than they were last year, are still faster than was typically true before the pandemic. The declines in spending on those items suggests that the Fed's rate increases are discouraging purchases in some areas. The central bank’s rate rate hikes have elevated the costs of mortgages, auto loans and other forms of consumer borrowing as well as business loans.

Persons: They've, ” Vincent Reinhart, Christopher Waller, Waller Organizations: WASHINGTON, Commerce Department, Dreyfus, Mellon, AAA, Fed Locations: Europe, U.S

☆ The US dollar is 'not forever' a safe haven asset, says Dreyfus and Mellon's Reinhart
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe US dollar is 'not forever' a safe haven asset, says Dreyfus and Mellon's ReinhartVincent Reinhart, Dreyfus and Mellon chief economist and macro strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what the rise in the long end of the yield curve could do for the Federal Reserve, how the United States' rate decision impact the global economy, and more.

Persons: Dreyfus, Mellon's Reinhart Vincent Reinhart Organizations: Mellon, Federal Reserve Locations: United States

☆ Gas is rapidly approaching $6 in one state
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

In California, gas prices are rapidly approaching $6 a gallon. Nationally, gas prices remain well below the record of $5.02 set last June. Still, US gas prices climbed this week to $3.88 a gallon, the highest level of the entire year, according to AAA. Boosted by those two nations’ aggressive supply cuts, US oil prices climbed to as high as $93.74 a barrel on Tuesday. And this recent rise in gas prices is causing headaches for some in Washington.

Persons: it’s, That’s, Pain, Joe Biden’s, Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Nicholas Colas, Colas, “, ”, Joe Brusuelas, Andy Lipow, Lipow, Russia don’t, Brent, Goldman Sachs, Vincent Reinhart, RSM’s, Reinhart, ’, Morgan Stanley, Kristina Hooper Organizations: New York CNN, —, AAA, Brent, Federal, DataTrek Research, RSM, Lipow Oil Associates, Rockies, Citigroup, Fed, Mellon Locations: United States, West Coast, In California, Los Angeles, Long Beach, California, Washington and Nevada, Saudi Arabia, Russia, It’s, Washington, OPEC

Student loan repayments restart in October after a three-year suspension during the COVID-19 pandemic. In isolation, none would likely shift policymakers' sense of the short-term risks or change their focus on quelling still-elevated inflation. By Goldman's estimate the economy would still be growing at a 1.3% annual rate at that point. But the amounts they see sliced from GDP are more than the 1% growth rate Fed officials expected the economy to muster as of June, and beyond many private forecasts as well. Some economists say the resumption of student loan repayments for tens of millions of borrowers may already be reshaping behavior.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Vincent Reinhart, Reinhart, Michael Pearce, Ian Shepherdson, Kieran Clancy, They've, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, Federal, Republicans, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Mellon, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Congressional, U.S . Department, Education, Thomson

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Dreyfus & Mellon's Vincent Reinhart
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Dreyfus & Mellon's Vincent ReinhartVincent Reinhart, Dreyfus and Mellon chief economist and macro strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the August CPI print's impact on interest rates, what to expect from the Fed's next meeting, and more.

Persons: Dreyfus, Mellon's Vincent Reinhart Vincent Reinhart Organizations: Mellon

☆ Fed on schedule to pause in September: Dreyfus and Mellon's Vincent Reinhart
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed on schedule to pause in September: Dreyfus and Mellon's Vincent ReinhartVincent Reinhart, Dreyfus and Mellon chief economist and macro strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the August CPI print's impact on interest rates, what to expect from the Fed's next meeting, and more.

Persons: Dreyfus, Mellon's Vincent Reinhart Vincent Reinhart Organizations: Fed, Mellon

☆ Harder for the Fed to restart rate hikes once they stop, says Dreyfus and Mellon's Vincent Reinhart
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHarder for the Fed to restart rate hikes once they stop, says Dreyfus and Mellon's Vincent ReinhartVincent Reinhart, Dreyfus and Mellon chief economist and macro strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, why it would be a mistake not to hike rates, and more.

Persons: Dreyfus, Mellon's Vincent Reinhart Vincent Reinhart Organizations: Fed, Mellon

The path to the pause will roll out in marquee monthly data on the key topics of jobs and prices, but also weekly series tracking emerging concerns about the financial industry. Here's a guide to what's ahead:JOBS: Next release May 5The data calendar will let the Fed receive two monthly jobs reports, covering April and May, before its June 13-14 policy meeting. For the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the measure used to set the Fed's 2% inflation target, only the April report will be available. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsFEDSPEAK: OngoingThe Fed's internal communications rules set a "blackout" period around each policy meeting. The curtain of silence around the May meeting lifts on Friday, May 5, and Fed officials can speak publicly about their views through Friday, June 2.

As a member of the Fed's Board of Governors a decade ago, Powell called certain possible debt default responses by the Fed "loathsome." Accepting defaulted securities as collateral for Fed loans, or swapping "good" federal debt already held by the Fed for impaired debt held by private investors, would be an extreme variation on the theme - yet one that may prove less "loathsome" than the alternative economic collapse some predict would follow a default. To a central bank, with no budget constraint and an elastic time horizon, it's just a matter of waiting out the politicians. Powell joined the Fed in 2012 from a think tank where he focused on debt and deficit issues. A debt default may pose another tough decision for a Fed chair who's motto could well be to never say never.

☆ Financial conditions 'not that tight' relative to rate hikes, says Dreyfus and Mellon's Reinhart
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFinancial conditions 'not that tight' relative to rate hikes, says Dreyfus and Mellon's ReinhartVincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at Dreyfus and Mellon, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his expectation from the next Federal Reserve meeting and more.

"It's going to take some time" for disinflation to spread through the economy, Powell said in a news conference following the Fed's latest quarter-point interest rate increase. He said he expects a couple more rate hikes still to go, and, "given our outlook, I just I don't see us cutting rates this year." Rate cuts, they expect, will start in September - a view Powell said Wednesday is driven by the expectation of fast-receding inflation. Since the 1990s, the interlude between rate hikes and rate cuts has varied from as long as 18 months in 1997-1998 to as short as five months in 1995. The Fed, Powell said Wednesday, cannot risk doing too little.

☆ Housing slump to continue but some hopeful signs ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-18 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

While that’s already had a negative impact on the housing market, we’ll get more details this week about how much worse the damage has become. A long list of housing data is on tap. On Tuesday the US Census Bureau will report housing starts and building permits figures for November, followed by Friday’s release of new home sales data for the same month. Housing market was frothy, but not a bubbleOthers in the industry are cautiously optimistic as well. That all amounts to a few good reasons why the housing market could avoid a severe and prolonged slump.

☆ Why Inflation Took Off in 2022—and What Happens Next
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Vincent Reinhart | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

In 2022, the Federal Reserve made history, almost surely launching hundreds of academic papers, dissertations and tell-all tomes to occupy interest for years to come. For most central bankers, attention is the worst of outcomes. Rather, most believe their ambition should be to follow John Maynard Keynes’s advice and “manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competent people, on the level with dentists.”The Fed only garners such attention making or correcting a major mistake—and there was a bit of both this year. Inflation was allowed to hit a 40-year high. Monetary policy had to pivot forcefully to raise the target range for the overnight rate to 4.25% to 4.5% in 2022, including four 0.75-percentage-point installments.

☆ US recession odds are 'extremely elevated' and a downturn is likely to hit within the next year, chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Vincent Reinhart, the chief economist of Dreyfus Mellon, is expecting a recession to hit within the next 12 months. "There is an extremely elevated chance of recession," he told Bloomberg on Thursday. "It's hard in a sense that they have to put pain on the economy to get inflation down," he said. "But it's spillover to service inflation, that's what you've got to worry about, that's what Powell's worried about. The durable part of inflation that's still above the Fed's goal."

☆ Fed set to deliver another big rate hike, debate December downshift
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Defining that point, or at least its parameters, will be the subject of intense discussion at this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Reuters GraphicsAnd during that time, Fed policymakers, with the notable exception of Powell, have offered a range of views on where they stand on a possible slowdown or even pause to rate hikes. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, for instance, said she'll look for signs that inflation is moving down before she would want to reduce the pace of rate hikes. Reuters Graphics'NEED TO BE CONVINCED'Bets in futures markets weigh heavily in favor of a slowdown in rate hikes starting in December, but ultimately a top Fed policy rate of 4.75%-5.00%, slightly higher than policymakers themselves have flagged, by early next year. Fed policymakers, Reinhart said, are also well aware that monetary policy typically goes too far.

☆ Friday's jobs report could be a case where good news isn't really good
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesInvestors are closely watching the nonfarm payrolls report due out Friday, but not for the usual reasons. In normal times, strong job gains and rising wages would be considered a good thing. When they get bad news on the economy, that means the Fed is going to tighten less." In real terms, Swiber said that likely means no change until the economy is actually losing jobs. Next week's CPI reading is likely to be more consequential when it comes to any shift in Fed attitudes, she added.

☆ Unemployment could end higher than Fed's 4% projection, says Evercore's Emanuel
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUnemployment could end higher than Fed's 4% projection, says Evercore's EmanuelJulian Emanuel, senior managing director at Evercore ISI, and Vincent Reinhart, a former Fed economist, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss whether Fed endorsed the notion of a recession, where unemployment data will end up, and more.

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